In the wealthy region of Emilia-Romagna, in Italy, GDP per capita is above the European average, but declining. The Bank of Italy estimates moderate economic growth (around 0.5%) and declining exports. Meanwhile, poverty is rising. In Bologna, the region’s capital, an increasing number of poor people live and sleep along the porticoes. Young people are building the future, but Emilia-Romagna has the highest number of under-30s in difficulty in Italy. In Bologna, they are queuing at the Antoniano soup kitchen. <<Uncertainty weighs on the future>>,” the Bank emphasises. Uncertainty refers to the state of not knowing what lies ahead. On January 17, 2020, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated: <<If I had to identify one theme at the beginning of the new decade, I would say it is growing uncertainty>>. The IMF’s 60 Years of Uncertainty report highlights the exceptional nature of recent levels of global uncertainty. In the eurozone, the tendency for countries to move forward together, synchronously and abruptly, increases uncertainty.
Uncertainty permeated Renaissance cities with a sense of ambiguity that evoked the pleasure of not finding what one was looking for. Michel de Montaigne rejoiced in uncertainty, seeing it as a springboard for innovation. Uncertainty made Shakespeare’s era one of the most culturally productive in English history. Will the current state of uncertainty push us out of our comfortable lair and into an exciting journey, as happened to the Mole in Kenneth Grahame’s story “The Wind in the Willows”? The world before us is an ever-changing horizon. Failure to recognise the uncertainty that arises when the future cannot be predicted leads to erroneous judgments. When the gap between reality and predictions is evident, why not embrace the pleasure of being unprepared, preferable to inadequate preparation? Why not strive to be imperfect, rather than feel pressured to achieve perfection, which means flawlessness and the absence of defects? The pleasure of being unprepared, imprecise, and incomplete presents a triple opportunity to activate the mind’s ability to formulate new ideas and remain adaptable: in short, be resourceful.
Will we address uncertainty with the Big Data that is so popular in Bologna? Be careful, some factors contribute to their uncertainty. Consider the disproportionate weight given to one or more data points, their anomalies (extreme values), and the noise (irrelevant data) that compromise their reliability. The more unpredictable the phenomena studied, the less an extensive data collection will be able to reduce uncertainty. Actions that are unclear or that are confusing due to knowledge gaps do not necessarily imply an adverse judgment, but they do fuel uncertainty about the intentions of those involved. While we demonstrate a low tolerance for uncertainty, contrasting it with reason and scientific research, we should not lose sight of the Asian approach that sees uncertainty as an intrinsic and inescapable characteristic of existence. It is accepted by staying in harmony with the natural flow of things. Building solid relationships based on trust, reciprocity, and mutual obligations is a key aspect of Chinese culture. This culture often leads to the exchange of favours and services, which is crucial for addressing economic uncertainty.
Is uncertainty taught or learned? In teaching, expert teachers run high risks when they fear losing credibility by not answering students’ questions. They become overconfident by providing highly uncertain answers. Teachers, acting as mentors, enable students to learn about uncertainty by admitting what they don’t know and remaining curious. If mishandled, uncertainty widens and deepens poverty because it creates instability, resulting in job loss and reduced income, especially for those who are already vulnerable. If we then wanted to fight it with vast fortunes, it is worth noting that those fortunes do not automatically reduce poverty, and the concentration of wealth can worsen inequalities.
