Bologna, Italy, the first strike after the holidays at Toyota M.H., is underway. Workers demand clarity about their future. Unfortunately, in crisis situations, we are trapped in the dark room of uncertainty. What is the level of uncertainty regarding the state and evolution of the economy in Bologna and Emilia-Romagna? We don’t know. We await clarification from the Emilia-Romagna Technopole, defined as “the heart of Italian excellence in Big Data.” The global economic policy uncertainty index has reached a record high, considering its trend from 1997 to the present.
On January 17, 2020, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated: “If I had to identify one theme at the beginning of the new decade, I would say it is rising uncertainty.” The IMF’s “60 Years of Uncertainty” report, covering the last 60 years, highlights the exceptional nature of recent levels of global uncertainty. In advanced economies, particularly in the Eurozone, where trade and financial ties are stronger, the tendency for countries to move together synchronously and abruptly raises uncertainty levels.
Before creating indexes, Big Data professionals should consider the meaning of uncertainty. Uncertainty refers to the state of not knowing what lies ahead. It differs from insecurity, which arises from a threat that actually materializes. While uncertainty represents the difficulty of predicting outcomes, especially in the long term, volatility contrasts with it, focusing on the dispersion of short-term shocks around a long-term average. Furthermore, uncertainty can also be seen as the subjective perception of the unpredictability of the environment. Precariousness, on the other hand, refers to a state of objective and persistent insecurity, characterized by a lack of control over one’s future. Economic decisions that have a profound impact on our daily lives create powerful currents of uncertainty. Consider decisions regarding the quantity (resource limits, inflation), quality (technological innovations that raise questions about knowledge, skills, ethics, and social change), and sustainability (pollution, climate instability, social precariousness) of economic growth; decisions regarding the performance of the stock market and pension savings; potential layoffs resulting from corporate crises; and decisions regarding educational paths and job offers.
Among these and other uncertain situations, those whose potential outcomes, whether positive or negative with respect to the set objectives, are deemed the most significant are often highly emotional. The immediacy of the event and the high stakes provoke opposing behaviours; for example, fear versus courage, worry versus hope, and frustration versus curiosity. To achieve satisfaction, one must be open enough to the unknown, which gives rise to unique success stories. When the uncertain event is confined to a distant or unpredictable future, or the consequences of its outcomes appear very limited, emotion gives way to a detached intellectual engagement driven by the pure desire to know, which stimulates the search for and analysis of information.
Playing with the fire of uncertainty along a non-linear path doesn’t necessarily mean everyone will get burned. On the contrary, something positively magical can happen. The possibility of achieving positive results, even in the midst of uncertainty, can push us to move forward and embrace the unknown. Our time is far from the stable policies of the Great Moderation period preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. Forecasts, which held political, social, and economic conditions constant, and judgments based on simplifications to explain causal relationships are no longer valid. Since economic choices do not occur in a vacuum, during their course, it is up to policymakers to leverage uncertainty properly understood to arrive at unique approaches, having to resolve problematic situations that present two or more alternatives, neither of which is clearly advisable or easy to approve.
